Group BGroup
Qatar vs Switzerland
Fri 12 Jun, 20:00 UTC · BC Place, Vancouver
Home win (model)
48.0%
QAT · ELO 1570
Draw (model)
29.3%
Away win (model)
22.7%
SUI · ELO 1700
Recommended pick
1–1
EV 10.33 · Rarity +70
Market Odds vs Fair Odds
Qatar
1.81
Fair: 1.89 (53.0%)
-4.0% vs mkt
Draw
3.35
Fair: 3.64 (27.4%)
-8.1% vs mkt
Switzerland
4.60
Fair: 5.12 (19.5%)
-10.1% vs mkt
Fetched: 2026-06-03T10:54:48.340Z · Source: the-odds-api
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
11%0.5
7%0.3
4%0.2
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
12%0.4
14%0.7★
6%0.2
2%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
10%0.3
9%0.3
4%0.2
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
5%0.1
4%0.1
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
2%0.1
2%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 1.44 · λ_away = 0.91 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 13.8% | 5 | +70 | 10.33 | TOP PICK |
| 1–0 | 12.5% | 3 | +70 | 9.10 | |
| 0–0 | 10.8% | 5 | +70 | 8.10 | |
| 2–0 | 9.8% | 3 | +70 | 7.18 | |
| 2–1 | 9.0% | 3 | +70 | 6.56 | |
| 0–1 | 7.5% | 4 | +70 | 5.53 | |
| 3–0 | 4.7% | 3 | +100 | 4.85 | |
| 3–1 | 4.3% | 3 | +100 | 4.43 | |
| 2–2 | 4.1% | 5 | +100 | 4.31 | |
| 1–2 | 5.7% | 4 | +70 | 4.23 |